Irrational Fears?

3766 Views 7 Replies 5 Participants Last post by harleyhoonigan, Jul 27, 2014

Livin On

Discussion Starter · Jul 11, 2014

So over the last couple months I've become increasingly interested in purchasing shares of Harley Davidson. I started watching in early April when HOG was trading in the mid 60's, spiked into the 70's and now has settled comfortably into the high 60's.

Whats interesting and a bit of an opportunity (if you ask me) is that HOG shares have not followed the exuberance that is the Dow/S&P. When Big Benny started QEforever it quickly became a game of Buy the All Time High, as tomorrow will be another. HOG has bucked that trend to a degree.

It seems that HD shares as of late have been taking a bit of licking based on assumptions of falling motorcycle sales, if you ask me thats nonsense. A big fear is a weakening European market, yet I think thats extremely short sighted. The Automakers have shown us that Europe and even North America to a degree are no longer the paths to fruition. If you want to make big money these days its all about the BRICS, and we know all about what Harley is doing with the bricks. Just ask out Indian friends how popular Harleys have become in that part of the world.

Personally I think this is a fantastic opportunity and one I plan on taking advantage of shortly, I believe the inherent success of the Streets domestically and globally has yet to be priced in. The stock carries significant upside in my opinion, one I am eager to exploit.

This is not investment advice in any way shape or form, please do your research.

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bbally

· #2 · Jul 12, 2014

You missed a nice play on GE Thursday into Friday.

Disclosure, I own HOG NYSE, I play it a lot.

Earning are out 7/22 prior to market open.

7/21 after market close place a limit order for 50 cents higher than the close. If earnings are stronger than expected you will take the ride with it. If someone has stepped on their crank with expense control the order will not execute.

After the order executes place a trailing limit order so you can bank the profit when the euphoria starts to wear off. Then jump in flat one week later at market.

I use 90 cents on my trailing stop loss.

Not investment advice. But it works.

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Testiphony

· #3 · Jul 13, 2014

Real economic growth is in places like India and Asia. Especially with motorcycles as people use the for their whole family and as their daily commuter. It's good that Harley is recognizing this and becoming more active in these regions.

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bbally

· #4 · Jul 14, 2014

Testiphony said:
Real economic growth is in places like India and Asia. Especially with motorcycles as people use the for their whole family and as their daily commuter. It's good that Harley is recognizing this and becoming more active in these regions.

Absolutely correct

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Livin On

Discussion Starter · #5 · Jul 23, 2014

If anyone is interested, some Q2 Data that supports some of what we discussed...

Global sales of 90,218 new Harleys in the second quarter of 2014, compared to 90,193 in 2013. Holding strong in the face of weakening demand (as per the stock jockeys)

U.S dealers sold 58,225 new bikes, compared to sales of 58,241 in 2013. HD feels Q2 U.S. sales were adversely affected by poor weather across the US. Interestingly they also feel the Street is negatively affecting sales of Sportster.

Through the first half of 2014, total world sales of 147,633 new bikes, compared to 144,447 motorcycles in the first half of 2013

Retail sales up 1.1 percent in the U.S., 10.1 percent in the Asia Pacific region and 7.5 percent in the EMEA region, and down 2.1 percent in Latin America and 13.5 percent in Canada, compared to the first half of 2013

Q2 net income of $354.2 million, from consolidated revenue of $2.00 billion, compared to 2013 net income of $271.7 million from $1.79 billion in consolidated revenue

Through six months, Harley-Davidson 2014 net income was $620.1 million from consolidated revenue of $3.73 billion, compared first half 2013 net income of $495.9 million from consolidated revenue of $3.37 billion.

EPS grew 33.9 percent to $1.62.

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Yusef

· #6 · Jul 23, 2014

Biggest growth in Asia Pacific, like we expected.

I think the weather argument makes sense too considering Canada also had a large sales drop, and you would expect the drop to be larger their since they would suffer even more from cold weather than the US would.

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bbally

· #7 · Jul 23, 2014

The spring sucked in North America period! Like winter just would not let go...

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harleyhoonigan

· #8 · Jul 27, 2014

Are there any stock exchange forums you guys go on?
Always wanted to get into this, never did.

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